Financial and economic evaluation of agricultural insurance market in Ukraine

Iryna Ivashkiv; Svitlana Korol; Oksana Lyashenko; Iryna Sadovska; Sergiy  Nadvynychnyy

doi:10.51599/are.2021.07.03.03

Iryna Ivashkiv Precarpathian State Agricultural Experimental Station of the Institute of Agriculture of the Carpathian Region NAAS https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8135-8260
Svitlana Korol Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4804-7612
Oksana Lyashenko Lutsk National Technical University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5489-815X
Iryna Sadovska Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7081-8524
Sergiy Nadvynychnyy West Ukrainian National University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5567-1114

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51599/are.2021.07.03.03

Keywords: insurance contracts, agricultural insurance market, crops, regression analysis, forecasting

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to diagnose the financial and economic conditions of the agricultural insurance market in the context of transformational changes, which allows identifying the dependences of variables among the indicators of insurance in Ukraine.

Methodology / approach. The final goal of diagnosis is to build models that describe the variables and allow assessing the impact of some insurance indicators on the number of insurance contracts, which allows conducting regression of projected and observed values among insurance indicators during 2005–2019. The direct selection was also applied, which allowed starting without variables in this model by checking the addition of each variable with the use of the selected criterion of conformity of the model; as well as the repeatedness of this process until the best state of the model.

Results. The modelling results allowed us to determine that among the insurance indicators in the agricultural insurance market, the dependent variable is the indicator of the number of insurance contracts. As a result of the regression, it was stated that for the dependent variable the USD / UAH exchange rate and the subsidy, mln UAH, have a significant impact on the number of insurance contracts. Less importance had the area, thousand hectares, and the remaining variables did not determine such an impact. The obtained regression value of the predicted and observed value stated an adequate model, as the slope of the regression line is 45°.

Originality / scientific novelty. The novelty is improvement of the diagnostic algorithm for assessing trends in the agricultural insurance market in terms of transformational changes, taking into account the regression which made it possible to establish the dependences of variables among insurance indicators; validity of the use of direct selection with repeatedness of which the best possible state of the model is achieved.

Practical value / implications. The comparison of the studied insurance indicators in the agricultural insurance market allowed determining the relationship between variables with the separation of their weight, which affect insurance contracts, which confirms the adequacy of the application of diagnostics which will be used during the evaluation of insurance contracts at enterprises of the agricultural insurance market.

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