Policy-oriented food insecurity estimation and mapping at district level in Pakistan


Keywords: small area estimation, food insecurity, spatial mapping, food expenditure, district level, Pakistan.

Abstract

Purpose. Food insecurity maps reveal the spatial variability of relevant indicators in relevant units in geographically disaggregated levels. This study is based on a systematic analysis of the least studied areas related to food insecurity in Pakistan, such as district-level Small Area Estimation (SAE) analysis of food insecurity by integrating several well-established datasets, including PSLM 2014–2015 and HIES 2015–2016.

Methodology / approach. We investigate the food insecurity situation at the district level in Pakistan by applying the household level technique of SAE method. The geographically disaggregated indicators of welfare are estimated by using SAE that integrates the census and survey datasets. This study estimates incidence and density indictors at the district level of food insecurity. The accessibility aspect of food security is taking into account by calculating monthly equivalent food expenditure per adult. In addition, the food insecurity headcount ratio is calculated to identify the food insecurity incidence at district level, and density are visualized using ‘spmap’ in STATA 14.

Results. The results of this study indicate that the districts with low food insecurity incidence are dense in terms of food insecure people. The second least food insecure district, according to food insecurity incidence estimates, has become the most food insecure in terms of food insecurity density. However, the most food insecure district with respect to food insecurity incidence has been identified as one of the least food insecure districts in terms of food insecure people. For instance, Washuk district in Balochistan, has been identified as the most food insecure district with almost 93 % food insecurity incidence. However, Washuk has only 0.17 million food insecure people according to food insecurity density estimates.

Originality / scientific novelty. The study highlighted the importance of food insecurity density estimates in addition to the food insecurity incidence for targeted policy interventions. In this study we have integrated a large and relatively smaller data set that covers most of the districts from all provinces of Pakistan for addressing the small sample issue which have been identified in previous studies. The variables that are common to both data sets are included after a screening process that include Variance Inflation Factor for multicollinearity, forward – backward selection criterion with model adjustment criterion either adjusted R2, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO).

Practical value / implications. The results of the study indicate that the policy makers should consider both the density and incidence of food insecurity for targeted policy interventions. This is because several districts with low food insecurity incidence are found to be dense with food insecure people.  Moreover, the obtained results can be complemented by the results of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) which is based on relatively very small samples from few districts of three provinces. This can be useful in efficient implementation of food security policy and programs in targeted areas. Furthermore, the results highlight that the efforts reduce food insecurity should be targeted at district level in Pakistan.

References

Henninger, N. (1998). Mapping and geographic analysis of poverty and human welfare: Review and assessment. Report prepared for the UNEP-CGIAR Consortium for Spatial Information. Washington, DC, World Resources Institute. Available at: http://pdf.wri.org/poverty_mapping_1998.pdf.

Hentschel, J., Lanjouw, J. O., Lanjouw, P., Poggi, J. (2000). Combining census and survey data to trace the spatial dimensions of poverty: a case study of Ecuador. The World Bank Economic Review, 14(1), 147–165. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/14.1.147.

Minot, N., & Baulch, B. (2004). Mapping poverty. Research Paper No. 2004/38. UNU-WIDER, Washington DC. Available at: http://www.rrojasdatabank.info/unurp04/rp2004-038_1.pdf.

FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO (2020). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming food systems for affordable healthy diets. FAO, Rome. Available at: https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/ca9692en.

FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO (2017). The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2017: building resilience for peace and food security. FAO, Rome. Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/i7695e/i7695e.pdf.

FAO (2015). Regional overview of food insecurity Asia and the Pacific. Towards a food secure Asia and the Pacific. Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, FAO, Bangkok. Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/i4624e/i4624e.pdf.

Economist Intelligence Unit (2017). Global Food Security Index 2017. Available at: https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=GFSI2017.

FAO & UNICEF EAPRO (2021). Asia and the Pacific – regional overview of food security and nutrition 2021: statistics and trends. FAO, Bangkok. Available at: https://www.unicef.org/eap/reports/asia-and-pacific-regional-overview-food-insecurity-and-nutrition.

Ministry of National Food Security and Research (2017). Food Security Assessment Report. Islamabad. Available at: http://www.mnfsr.gov.pk.

Government of Pakistan Finance Division (2003). Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) – II. Available at: http://www.finance.gov.pk/poverty/PRSP-II.pdf.

Davies, S., & Soofi, S. et al. (2017). Strategic review of food security and nutrition in Pakistan. International Food Policy Research Institute, Aga Khan University. Available at: https://www.aku.edu/news/Documents/A%20Strategic%20Review%20of%20Pakistan%20Nutrition%20Food%20Insecurity%20Report.pdf.

Bagriansky, J. (2017). The economic consequences of undernutrition in Pakistan: an assessment of losses. World Food Programme Pakistan. Available at: https://www.pc.gov.pk/uploads/report/Economic_Consequences.pdf.

Schichting, D. & Ahmadi-Esfahani, F. (2004). Household food security in the Northern areas of Pakistan: an empirical analysis. 5th Annual Research Conference 2004 on “Sharping population and Development Research across South and West Asia”, held in University of Karachi, 14–16 December 2004.

Bashir, M. K., Schilizzi, S. & Pandit, R. (2012). The determinants of rural household food security in the Punjab, Pakistan: an econometric analysis (Working Paper 1203). School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Western Australia, Crawley. Available at: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/122526.

Asghar, Z., & Muhammad, A. (2013). Socio-economic determinants of household food insecurity in Pakistan. Available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21510/1/MPRA_paper_21510.pdf.

Ishaq, A., Khalid, M., & Ahmad, E. (2018). Food insecurity in Pakistan: a region-wise analysis of trends (PIDE Working Papers No. 157). Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Available at: https://pide.org.pk/pdfpideresearch/wp-0157-food-insecurity-in-Pakistan-a-region-wise-analysis-of-trends.pdf.

Swindale, A., & Bilinsky, P. (2006). Household dietary diversity score (HDDS) for measurement of household food access: indicator guide (v. 2). Washington, DC, Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance Project, Academy for Educational Development. Available at: https://www.fantaproject.org/sites/default/files/resources/HDDS_v2_Sep06_0.pdf.

Brugh, K., Angeles, G., Mvula, P., Tsoka, M., & Handade, S. (2018). Impacts of the Malawi social cash transfer program on household food and nutrition security. Food Policy, 76, 19–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.11.002.

Ahmad, M., Mustafa, G., & Iqbal, M. (2016). Impact of farm households' adaptations to climate change on food security: evidence from different agro-ecologies of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 55(4), 561–588. https://doi.org/10.30541/v55i4I-IIpp.561-588.

Ahmad, M., & Farooq, U. (2010). The state of food security in Pakistan: Future challenges and coping strategies. The Pakistan Development Review, 49(4), 903–923. https://doi.org/10.2307/41428696.

Malik, S. J., Nazli, H., & Whitney, E. (2015). Food consumption patterns and implications for poverty reduction in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 54(4), 651–669. https://doi.org/10.30541/v54i4I-IIpp.651-670.

Haider, A., & Zaidi, M. (2017). Food consumption patterns and nutrition disparity in Pakistan (MPRA Paper No. 83522). Institute of Business Administration, Karachi. Available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83522/1/MPRA_paper_83522.pdf.

Hameed, A., Ul Haq Padda, I., & Salam, A. (2021). Analysis of food and nutrition security in Pakistan: a contribution to zero hunger policies. Sarhad Journal of Agriculture, 37(3), 1025–1042. https://doi.org/10.17582/journal.sja/2021/37.3.1025.1042.

Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform, Planning Commission (2016). Minimum Cost of the Diet in Pakistan. Available at: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000112731/download/?_ga=2.69630096. 1698647386.1670844448-704067781.1670844448.

UNDP (2016). Multidimensional Poverty in Pakistan. Available at: https://www.undp.org/pakistan/publications/multidimensional-poverty-pakistan.

Park, T. K., Baro, M., & Ngaido, T. (1993). Crisis of nationalism in Mauritania In T. K. Park (Ed.), Risk and Tenure in Arid Lands – The Political Ecology of Development in the Senegal river basin. Tucson – London, University of Arizona Press.

Farrow, A., Larrea, C., Hyman, G., & Lema, G. (2005). Exploring the spatial variation of food poverty in Ecuador. Food policy, 30(5–6), 510–531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2005.09.005.

Datt, G., & Jolliffe, D. (1999). Determinants of poverty in Egypt: 1997. FCND Discussion Paper No. 75. International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, D.C. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2938088_Determinants_Of_Poverty_In_Egypt_1997.

Suleri, A. Q. (2009). Food insecurity in Pakistan 2009. Sustainable Development Policy Institute. Available at: https://sdpi.org/food-insecurity-in-pakistan-2009/project_detail.

WFP (2017). Integrated context analysis (ICA) on vulnerability to food insecurity and natural hazards Pakistan. Available at: https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/integrated-context-analysis-ica-vulnerability-food-insecurity-and-natural-hazards.

IPC (2021). IPC acute food insecurity analysis in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Available at: https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/ipc-overview-and-classification-system/ipc-acute-food-insecurity-classification/en/#:~:text=In%20particular%2C%20the%20IPC%20Acute,(5)%20Catastrophe%2FFamine.

Kristjanson, P., Radeny, M., Baltenweck, I., Ogutu, J., & Notenbaert, A. (2005). Livelihood mapping and poverty correlates at a meso-level in Kenya. Food Policy, 30(5–6), 568–583. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2005.10.002.

Minot, N., & Baulch, B. (2005). Spatial patterns of poverty in Vietnam and their implications for policy. Food Policy, 30(5–6), 461–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2005.09.002.

Szonyi, J., De Pauw, E., La Rovere, R., & Aw-Hassanb, A. (2010). Mapping natural resource-based poverty, with an application to rural Syria. Food Policy, 35(1), 41–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2009.06.007.

Hossain, A., Krupnik, T., Timsina, J., Golam Mahboob, M., Kumar Chaki, A., Farooq, M., Bhatt, R., ... & Hasanuzzaman, M. (2020). Agricultural land degradation: processes and problems undermining future food security In Environment, climate, plant and vegetation growth (pp. 17–61). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49732-3_2.

Magombeyi, M., Taigbenu, A., & Barron, J. (2016). Rural food insecurity and poverty mappings and their linkage with water resources in the Limpopo River Basin. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 92(C), 20–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2015.10.020.

Devereux, S., & Maxwell, S. (2002). Food security in sub-Saharan Africa. ITDG Publishing. Available at: https://practicalactionpublishing.com/book/774/food-security-in-sub-saharan-africa.

Hussein, K. (2002). Food Security: Rights, Livelihoods and the World Food Summit – five years later. Social Policy & Administration, 36(6), 626–647. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9515.00308.

Frankenberger, T., & Coyle, P. (1993). Integrating household food security into farming systems research/extension. Journal for Farming Systems Research/Extension, 4(1), 35–65.

Kaiser, R., Spiegel, P., Henderson, A., & Gerber, M. (2003). The application of geographic information systems and global positioning systems in humanitarian emergencies: lessons learned, programme implications and future research. Disasters, 27(2), 127–140. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-7717.00224.

Baker, J. L., & Grosh, M. E. (1994). Measuring the effects of geographic targeting on poverty reduction, 99. Washington, DC, World Bank. Available at: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/157292.

Grosh, M. E., & Glinskaya, E. (1997). Proxy means testing and social assistance in Armenia. Draft. Development Economics Research Group, Washington, DC, World Bank.

Elbers, C. T. M., Lanjouw, J., & Lanjouw, P. (2000). Welfare in villages and towns: micro-measurement of poverty and inequality (TI Discussion Paper Series, No. 00-029/2). Tinbergen Institute. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20000029.html.

Alderman, H., Babita, M., Demombynes, G., Makhatha, N., & Özler, B. (2002). How low can you go? Combining census and survey data for mapping poverty in South Africa. Journal of African Economies, 11(2), 169–200. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/11.2.169.

Deaton, A. (1997). The analysis of household surveys: a microeconometric approach to development policy. Washington, DC, World Bank. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30394.

Ejaz Ali Khan, R., Azid, T., & Usama Toseef, M. (2012). Determinants of food security in rural areas of Pakistan. International Journal of Social Economics, 39(12), 951–964. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068291211269082.

Hyman, G., Larrea, C., & Farrow, A. (2005). Methods, results and policy implications of poverty and food security mapping assessments. Food Policy, 30(5–6), 453–460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2005.10.003.

Kam, S.-P., Hossain, M., Lal Bose, M., & Villano, L. S. (2005). Spatial patterns of rural poverty and their relationship with welfare-influencing factors in Bangladesh. Food Policy, 30(5–6), 551–567. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2005.10.001.

Foster, J., Greer, J., & Thorbecke, E. (1984). A class of decomposable poverty measures. Econometrica, 52(3), 761–766. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913475.

Benson, T., Chamberlin, J., & Rhinehart, I. (2005). An investigation of the spatial determinants of the local prevalence of poverty in rural Malawi. Food Policy, 30(5–6), 532–550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2005.09.004.

Bellon, M. R., Hodson, D., Bergvinson, D., Beck, D., Martinez-Romero, E., & Montoya, Y. (2005). Targeting agricultural research to benefit poor farmers: Relating poverty mapping to maize environments in Mexico. Food Policy, 30(5–6), 476–492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2005.09.003.

Legg, C., Kormawa, P., Maziya-Dixon, B., Okechukwu, R., Ofodile, S., & Alabi, T. (2005). Report on mapping livelihoods and nutrition in Nigeria using data from the National Rural Livelihoods Survey and the National Food Consumption and Nutrition Survey. International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan. Available at: http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/povertymapping/download/Nigeria.pdf.

Mahmood, H. Z., Ali, A., Rahut, D. B., Pervaiz, B., & Siddiqui, F. (2020). Linking land distribution with food security: empirical evidence from Pakistan. The Journal of Animal & Plant Sciences, 30(1), 175–184. https://doi.org/10.36899/JAPS.2020.1.0020.

Ali, A., & Erenstein, O. (2017). Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Climate Risk Management, 16(2), 183–194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.12.001.

Sujakhu, N. M., Ranjitkar, S., Niraula, R. R., Salim, M. A., Nizami, A., Schmidt-Vogt, D., & Xu, J. (2018). Determinants of livelihood vulnerability in farming communities in two sites in the Asian Highlands. Water International, 43(2), 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2017.1416445.

Aslam, A. Q., Ahmad, I., Ahmad, S. R., Hussain, Y., Hussain, M. S., Shamshad, J., & Ali Zaidi, S. J. (2018). Integrated climate change risk assessment and evaluation of adaptation perspective in southern Punjab, Pakistan. Science of the Total Environment, 628–629, 1422–1436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.129.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2015). Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement. Available at: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/pakistan-social-and-living-standards-measurement.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2016). Household Integrated Economic Survey (2015–2016). Available at: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/publication/household-integrated-economic-survey-hies-2015-16.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2017). The Household Integrated Economic Survey 2015–2016. Available at: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/pslm/publications/hies15-16/write%20up%2015-16-HIES-final_0.pdf.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2016). Pakistan social and living standards measurement survey (2014–2015). National Provincial District report. Available at: https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/pslm/publications/PSLM_2014-15_National-Provincial-District_report.pdf.

Davis, B. (2003). Choosing a method for poverty mapping. FAO, Rome. Available at: https://www.fao.org/3/y4597e/y4597e.pdf.

Elbers, C., Lanjouw, J., & Lanjouw, P. (2000). Welfare in villages and towns: micro-level estimation of poverty and inequality. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-029/2. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20000029.html.

Zhao, Q. (2006). User manual for PovMap. Washington, D.C. World Bank. Available at: https://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01407/web/images/zhao_man.pdf.

Nguyen, M. C., Corral, P., Azevedo, J. P., & Zhao, Q. (2018). SAE – a Stata package for unit level small area estimation. Policy Research Working Paper No. 8630. Washington, DC. World Bank. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30650.

Corral, P., Molina, I., & Nguyen, M. (2021). Pull your small area estimates up by the bootstraps. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 19(16), 3304–3357. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36821.

Ghosh, M., & Rao, J. (1994). Small area estimation: an appraisal. Statistical science, 9(1), 55–76. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177010647.

Bigman, D., & Loevinsohn, M. (1999). Targeting Agricultural R&D for Poverty Reduction: General Principles and an Illustration for Sub-Saharan Africa. Discussion Paper No. 01-1. Available at: http://ciat-library.ciat.cgiar.org/paper_pobreza/085.pdf.

Bigman, D., & Hunag, J. (2000). The use of the agricultural census in China for targeting poverty alleviation and economic programs. Paper for presentation at the FAO Conference on the First Agricultural Census in China, Beijing, September.

Bigman, D., Dercon, S., Guillaume, D., & Lambotte, M. (2000). Community targeting for poverty reduction in Burkina Faso. The World Bank Economic Review, 14(1), 167–193. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3990040.

Godilano, E. et al. (2000). Spatial analysis of rural poverty and environmental vulnerability: the case of Bangladesh. Paper presented to the 5th GISDECO Conference. The International Rice Research Institute. Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines, 2–3 November 2000.

Minot, N. (2000). Generating disaggregated poverty maps: an application to Vietnam. World development, 28(2), 319–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(99)00126-6.

Bigman, D., & Srinivasan, P. (2002). Geographical targeting of poverty alleviation programs: methodology and applications in rural India. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(3), 237–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(02)00108-4.

Deichmann, U. (1999). Geographic aspects of inequality and poverty. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/338281468335942762/pdf/765100WP0Geogr00Box374382B00PUBLIC0.pdf.

Nicaragua (2001). Estrategia reforzada de crecimiento económico y reducción de pobreza. Gobierno de la República de Nicaragua.

Elbers, C., Lanjouw, J. O., Lanjouw, P., & Leite, P. G. (2001). Poverty and inequality in Brazil: new estimates from combined PPV-PNAD data. The World Bank. Available at: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/poverty/RioWS-poverty-in-Brazil.pdf.

International Labour Organization and CRPRID (2002). Pakistan Human Condition Report. Available at: https://labordoc.ilo.org/discovery/fulldisplay?vid=41ILO_INST:41ILO_V2&docid=alma994094463402676&lang=en&context=L&adaptor=Local%20Search%20Engine.

Buse, R. C., & Salathe, L. E. (1978). Adult equivalent scales: an alternative approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 60(3), 460–468. https://doi.org/10.2307/1239943.

Highlights of Pakistan Economic Survey 2015–2016 (2016). Available at: https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_16/highlights_2015_16.pdf.

Elbers, C., Lanjouw, J. O., & Lanjouw, P. (2003). Micro-level estimation of poverty and inequality. Econometrica, 71(1), 355–364. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00399.

James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2017). An introduction to statistical learning: with applications in R, 7th ed. New York, Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-0716-1418-1.

Molina, I., & Rao, J. N. K. (2010). Small area estimation of poverty indicators. Canadian Journal of Statistics, 38(3), 369–385. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27896031.

Efron, B., & Tibshirani, R. J. (1993). An Introduction to the bootstrap. New York, Washington, D.C.

Humanitarian Response (2011). Pakistan National Nutrition Survey 2011. Available at: https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/NNS%202011.pdf.

UNICEF (2018). Pakistan National Nutrition Survey 2018. Available at: https://www.unicef.org/pakistan/media/1951/file/FinalKey%20Findings%20Report%202019.pdf.

Published
2022-12-20
How to Cite
Kiran, R., & Jabbar, A. (2022). Policy-oriented food insecurity estimation and mapping at district level in Pakistan. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, 8(4), 33-65. https://doi.org/10.51599/are.2022.08.04.02
Section
Articles